XO Labs · Research · Draft v3, July 2026

quirq

A unit of work for intelligence.

The token meters what AI consumes. Nothing meters what it delivers. The quirq is the missing output meter: value budgeted by a human owner, minted by machine verification against captured world state, costed all-in from inference to intervention, and read over time as a trajectory.

01One meter is missing

Every consequential technology gets two meters. Electricity has the watt, and the ledger of what the power produced. Labor has the hour, and the deliverable. AI has one.

Token / the input meter

what the machine drew
  • Counts compute. The atomic events of inference, nearly linear in FLOPs.
  • Scales with energy. And therefore with carbon: real physical accounting.
  • Prices capacity. Infrastructure can plan against it.

A genuinely good unit, for exactly half the question.

Quirq / the output meter

what the machine delivered
  • Outcomes, verified. Scored against a definition of done, from captured state.
  • Budget-denominated. Valued by the human who pays for the outcome.
  • Minted, never self-reported. No component trusts the worker's testimony.

The number a business has been missing.

Divide one by the other and every number an operator needs falls out: cost per quirq quirqs per dollar quirqs per kWh and, tracked over time, the AI effectiveness trajectory of a company.

02The mint

Tokens go in as white light.
Verified value comes out as spectrum.

A quirq is never claimed, it is minted. The environment that hosts the work snapshots the world before execution and after, scores completion V against a weighted definition of done, and mints V · B quirqs from what verifiably changed. The environment is the prism: nothing passes through unrefracted.

Tokens in · what the machine consumes Quirqs out · what the work delivered
1 · Define

The outcome

A machine-checkable definition of done: weighted predicates over world state, stated before execution.

2 · Budget

The value B

The owner prices the outcome: the amount they would pay for it to exist. The task carries B potential quirqs.

3 · Execute

In a workspace

The agent works inside an environment with runtime, memory, files, tools. Every token and API call is metered as a side effect.

4 · Verify

Against state

Snapshot before, snapshot after. Completion V scored from the world itself, never the agent's account of what it did.

5 · Settle

Mint V · B

Verification mints V · B quirqs of delivered work into a tamper-evident ledger, alongside everything production consumed.

03The mint rule, live

Q = V · B

The whitepaper's worked example: a support ticket, budgeted by its owner at B = $4.00, with three weighted checks. Toggle the checks, move the budget, and watch what the environment would mint. Nothing here is self-reported: each check is a predicate the environment evaluates against the after-snapshot.

Q = V · B = 0.80 × $4.00
3.20
quirqs minted
V = 0.80partial completion
All-in cost
$0.128
Cost / quirq
0.040
Multiple
25×

Incomplete work is automatically more expensive per quirq, which is the incentive pointing the right way. A unit that settles below threshold is an intervention event, counted for free.

04The all-in cost

The token bill is one line of the true cost.

Against minted quirqs the environment meters everything production consumed. The same worked ticket, at all-in cost C = $0.128:

Inference
38k tokens at $2/M plus 4k on a cheap classifier
$0.077
Compute
90 CPU-seconds of sandbox time
$0.001
External APIs
Two CRM calls at $0.01 each
$0.020
Environment
Fixed cost, amortized across hosted units
$0.030
Human intervention · the term most often omitted
Minutes spent rescuing failed checks, at the intervenor's loaded rate
$0 this unit

An AI program whose outputs each require twenty minutes of senior review is paying its largest cost in a currency the token bill never sees. Under quirq accounting it cannot hide.

Interventions are exactly the V < τ events the scoring rule already counts
05The company ledger

Read monthly, like a P&L.

A worked quarter for a mid-size support-and-engineering operation, every number computed from the calculus. The token bill, read alone, says costs nearly doubled. The quirq ledger says something else entirely.

Q2 trajectory
QERtoken spend
MonthUnitsMinted QAll-in CQER
April2,10015,770$5,0203.1×
May3,40026,310$6,4804.1×
June4,80038,000$6,8305.6×

Illustrative arithmetic from the whitepaper, exhibiting the full calculation chain. The validation program's job is to replace it with production ledgers.

QER
+81%
3.1× to 5.6× in one quarter
Intervention rate
11.4%
down from 18.1%: a third less human rescue
Cost per quirq
0.18
down from 0.32
Quirq velocity
+141%
throughput in value, not task counts

In tokens alone, spend rose +83%: a number indistinguishable from waste. In quirqs, verified value per all-in dollar rose +81% while human rescue fell a third: the difference between an expense line and an investment case.

06The bridge

Joining the two meters.

Because the cost model retains token counts, physical accounting composes with value accounting. Tokens and quirqs are duals: coupled only through the world, which is exactly where a business wants them coupled.

169
quirqs per kilowatt-hour

A month at 2.1B tokens and 1.5 J/token is ≈875 kWh. If it minted 148,000 quirqs, that is the plant's efficiency frontier.

Q / tCO₂
quirqs per tonne of carbon

The sustainability number a board can act on: not "we used less AI" but "more verified value per unit of energy."

dQER/dt
the trajectory

"Is AI working here" becomes a trend line instead of an anecdote: the AI effectiveness trajectory of a company.

07Gaming the quirq

A unit of account is a target.
This one is built to fail loudly.

Quirq accounting does not escape Goodhart's law; it is engineered so that gaming leaves marks where activity metrics fail silently. The attack surface, in order of severity:

The honest summary: quirq integrity reduces to environment integrity plus budget governance. The first is an engineering property, demonstrated. The second is an institutional property, stated as an open hypothesis, because that is what it is.

Section 6, "Gaming the quirq"
08Validation

Every hypothesis carries its falsifier.

The program is hypothesis-first: hypotheses stated at full strength, each bound to numbered experiments on an open harness whose results ledger is content-addressed. A skeptic re-runs and compares hashes rather than trusting the prose.

H1 · Mint integrity

State minting admits no fiction

False completion claims settle at rate zero when read from environment-captured state; any self-report channel settles them at the false-claim rate.

Falsifier · the environment arm settling any incomplete unit, or hardened checks failing to detect verification-surface attacks.

H2 · Ledger identification

Tenure lowers cost toward a floor

In persistent environments, cost per quirq falls with unit index toward a stable execution floor; fresh contexts pay cold start every time.

Falsifier · flat or rising persistent-arm trajectories, or equal decay in fresh contexts.

H3 · Predictive validity

QER* predicts real outcomes

Audit-corrected QER trend predicts renewal, expansion, and P&L attribution better than token spend, task counts, or benchmark scores.

Falsifier · QER* failing to outperform those baselines in instrumented deployments.

H4 · Budget governance

Inflation is bounded

Under payer-set budgets, benchmark anchoring, and sampled value audits, the ratio of budgets to audited value stays within tolerance under sustained pressure.

Falsifier · systematic budget drift despite the mitigations.

E1
Complete · mock
Verification source: 7 false claims, zero minted
E2
Complete · mock
Hardening: silent gaming to 100% detection
E3
Complete · mock
Tenure: 85.6% cost decay to floor
E4
In progress
Real-mode replication with a production coding agent
E5
Scheduled
Pilot ledgers on real work, three unit types
E6
Scheduled
Predictive study: QER* vs every baseline
E7
Scheduled
Longitudinal budget-drift audit
E3 · cost per unit across twelve similar units
persistent environmentfresh context

Mock-mode caveat, in full: the scripted agent implements the cost equation, so this demonstrates harness consistency, not agent behavior. Real-mode measurement (E4) is the program's current deliverable.

The claim ledger

Every load-bearing claim in the paper is tiered, and the open ones say so on the tin. Where evidence is mechanical rather than empirical, the caption says so, not a footnote.

sourcedderivedmeasured · mockopen · falsifier attached
results ledger · sha256:ce4d91c4…aa2154
Audited in public

We publish adversarial validation receipts, including the ones that dispute us. The current draft carries a disputed verdict from a frontier-model audit, and its issues feed the next revision.

arithmetic 78 sources 57 logic 43 gaming resistance 29
09The whitepaper

"If the program succeeds, 'is AI working here' becomes a number with a trend. If it fails, the ledger will say so, which is the point of having one."